SnowOdds

Tsugaike Kogen

Nagano Prefecture, Japan

Village803 m2,635 ftSummit1,707 m5,600 ft

Painting of Tsugaike Kogen

Weather this week

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Best weeks at Tsugaike Kogen

SnowOdds score at the summit, out of 100

Pick your week

Bars show each week's SnowOdds score at the summit: fresh snow and base first, then sun, rain and wind.

100
50
NovDecJanFebMarApr

Summit, 1,707 m5,600 ft

18–24 Jan

68/ 100Great

20 of 20 winters had 10 cm4 in or more of fresh snow this week

Snow everywhere. Historically one of the best weeks to be here.

Snow

Weather

How the score works

The SnowOdds score

Every week at every resort gets a score out of 100. Snow sets it, and bad weather can take up to 45% off. The percentages show how much each part counts within snow or weather.

Snow

  • Fresh snow

    60%
  • Base

    25%
  • Powder

    15%

Weather

  • Sun

    50%
  • No rain

    30%
  • Calm

    20%

Example: Tsugaike Kogen, 18–24 Jan

Out of 10WeightPoints
Fresh snow10× 60%60
Base10× 25%25
Powder6.2× 15%9
Snow94 / 100
Sun2.9× 50%15
No rain4.6× 30%14
Calm4.7× 20%9
Weather38 / 100

Weather at 38 out of 100 takes 28% off the snow points. The worse the weather, the more comes off, up to 45%.

Score94 − 28% = 68/ 100

Avg fresh snow
29 cm11 in
Snowy days
5.1 of 7
Avg temperature
-8°C18°F
Season snowfall so far
2.3 m89 in

Beyond the odds · at the summit, this week

Bluebird days
0.2 of 7
Wind holds
0.9 of 7
Dry powder
62%
Icy mornings
0 of 7

Only on SnowOdds

Beyond the odds

Our own measures, from every day of the last 20 winters at the summit.

Bluebird days

3.6a winter

More than 85% of resorts

A clear day with no new snow, right after 10 cm4 in or more fell in the two days before.

Most likely 15–21 Mar

Wind holds

21a winter

Calmer than 13% of resorts

Days with gusts of 70 km/h43 mph or more at the summit: enough to stop most chairlifts.

Dry powder

42%of the snow

Drier than 49% of resorts

Snow that fell on days that stayed below -5°C23°F at the summit: light and dry. The rest is heavier.

Icy mornings

16a winter

Less icy than 61% of resorts

Mornings after a day above 0°C32°F and a night at -3°C27°F or colder, with no new snow: hard, icy pistes until the sun softens them.

Every winter since 1950/51

See all 76 winters, day by day
Average winter
4.8 m190 in
Snowiest winter
6.0 m237 in
Leanest winter
3.4 m132 in
Change since 1950/51
+1.4°C+2.5°F

Snow at Tsugaike Kogen, answered

When is the best time to ski Tsugaike Kogen?

Historically the best week for fresh snow at Tsugaike Kogen is 18–24 Jan: in 20 of the last 20 winters at least 10 cm of new snow fell at the summit that week (100% odds), 29 cm on average. The next best weeks are 1–7 Feb and 11–17 Jan.

Which month has the most reliable snow at Tsugaike Kogen?

January, with an average 99% chance of 10 cm or more of fresh snow in any given week at the summit. April is the least reliable month of the season at 20%.

How high is Tsugaike Kogen?

The village sits at 803 m (2,635 ft) and the top lift reaches 1,707 m (5,600 ft), a vertical drop of 904 m (2,966 ft). The resort has about 34 km of pistes and 15 lifts.

Does it snow in the village at Tsugaike Kogen?

In the best week (18–24 Jan) the village gets 10 cm or more of fresh snow in 75% of winters, against 100% at the summit. The average village temperature that week is -3°C (26°F).

Every week of the season, in numbers

Odds of 10 cm or more of fresh snow in the week, and average fresh snow, at Tsugaike Kogen
WeekSummit oddsSummit snowVillage oddsVillage snow
2–8 Nov0%2 cm0%0 cm
9–15 Nov25%5 cm0%1 cm
16–22 Nov40%10 cm15%3 cm
23–29 Nov45%12 cm0%3 cm
30 Nov – 6 Dec75%19 cm45%11 cm
7–13 Dec75%23 cm55%13 cm
14–20 Dec84%28 cm68%18 cm
21–27 Dec100%31 cm79%22 cm
4–10 Jan100%31 cm95%27 cm
11–17 Jan100%31 cm90%24 cm
18–24 Jan100%29 cm75%23 cm
25–31 Jan95%31 cm90%24 cm
1–7 Feb95%28 cm75%21 cm
8–14 Feb100%29 cm85%21 cm
15–21 Feb90%29 cm75%22 cm
22–28 Feb75%21 cm55%15 cm
1–7 Mar75%19 cm30%8 cm
8–14 Mar85%21 cm45%10 cm
15–21 Mar80%19 cm35%8 cm
22–28 Mar50%16 cm25%6 cm
29 Mar – 4 Apr45%11 cm15%3 cm
5–11 Apr30%9 cm5%3 cm
12–18 Apr15%5 cm0%1 cm
19–25 Apr10%4 cm0%0 cm
26 Apr – 2 May0%1 cm0%0 cm